In a world where superstars of the sport command exorbitant prices that make it near impossible to snatch them off of their current clubs, the European elite have turned to something rather unprecedented - buying potential. This isn’t a new phenomenon, but it has resurfaced recently.
Thinking back to the record-shattering €94.00m transfer fee from Manchester United to Real Madrid while being worth €60.00m, we can see that it is, in fact, in line with the logical reasoning that the higher the ceiling for the player, the more expensive they will be - regardless of their market value.
Here, we know just how good Ronaldo was - in a league that garners a reputation of being one of the best in Europe. Thus, the justification for such a move is valid, albeit with some backlash.
Looking at today's market, however, there are more and more young superstars commanding prices of a similar value while being developed in a relatively “weaker” league. Unproven - the criticism that comes with these signings - as the jump we’ve seen so many times before is a huge one from such domestic competition into the European elite. And yet, this trend seems only to be going upwards - with players significantly younger than yesteryear.
Most recently, the rumours of one Victor Roque of Athletico Paranaense moving to Barcelona on the back of Real Madrid’s acquisition of Endrick for a whopping €60.00m illustrates such a point of contention. A fellow Brazilian, Roque is also rumoured to be valued at €60.00m.
At the same time, success has been historically viable with such a method, and so has a failure. To illustrate this, you needn’t look too far from home as Paul Pogba’s record-breaking move to Manchester United is the perfect example of when banking on potential doesn’t garner the results that, in theory, it should’ve.
Why this trend is increasing in popularity can be attributed to the desire for the elite to get their hands on talents as early as possible to allow them to develop in their mould of football and the ridiculous inflation that has occurred over the last decade or so.
As a result, it is becoming more and more difficult for clubs that haven’t the backing of the true 1% to chase top talents at upper echelon prices.
As such, the competition for the “next big thing” is where most of the field battles are in the transfer game. Taking raw talent from countries such as Brazil and Columbia, the world of football has decisively shifted away from Europe to the leagues of South America to acquire those with the technicality to match up with the best.
With footballing conglomerates also setting up shop across the continent, the supply chain for breaking talent through is more streamlined than ever - take the City group or Red Bull. Where they begin, though, is not in Europe but in South America or Asia.
Map including all the Red Bull football clubs (from MKRT Insights)
With this comes an increase in demand for talent in the region. As the supply of such talent shrinks, the value of these talents also increases—these talents which are promising but untapped and, as such, drive the prices for these talents up.
With this, now the risk is no longer just about how much a player of high potential costs, but also whether they can successfully adapt into the mould of the buying club while maintaining the trajectory to reach the theoretical ceiling assessed for them.
As many factors may impact a player’s development, such as early injuries or lack of game time, this trend certainly increases the risk of such expenditure. But this trend of banking on potential will not be stopping anytime soon, and how this will influence both scouting and the acquisition of the next generation of talents is something we should all keep an eye on…
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